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EUR/USD Price Forecast: Fed Speakers and PMIs to Guide the Euro; Sell Today?
Arslan Butt•Tuesday, April 2, 2024•2 min read
In today’s trading session, the EUR/USD pair finds itself grappling with downward pressure, currently trading at $1.07307, reflecting a modest decline of 0.10%. As market participants digest recent events and anticipate upcoming economic indicators, the pair’s immediate future appears to hinge on a critical pivot point positioned at $1.0763.
This pivot acts as a threshold between bearish and bullish sentiments, with the currency duo currently under this mark.
Observing resistance levels, we encounter the first at the pivot itself, $1.0763, followed by subsequent ceilings at $1.0838 and $1.0864, which could restrict upward movements should bullish momentum gain traction.
Conversely, support levels are identified below the current trading price, with immediate cushioning at $1.0724. Deeper supports are stationed at $1.0695 and $1.0658, potentially halting any further declines.
The technical landscape is buttressed by the Relative Strength Index (RSI), which at 27 indicates an oversold market, often a precursor to a possible price reversal. Meanwhile, the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $1.0810, now above the spot price, could signify a battleground for control between bears and bulls.
The bearish engulfing candle on the 4-hour timeframe, along with a breakout below the upward trendline at $1.0765, suggests that sellers are in command, maintaining a grip on the market’s direction. It is prudent to consider that a continuation of this bearish trend could be on the horizon.
In the backdrop of this technical assessment lies a packed economic docket:
- Spanish unemployment changes and Manufacturing PMIs from Spain, Italy, France, and Germany could inject volatility into the Eurozone currency.
- Across the pond, the U.S. economic releases, including JOLTS Job Openings and Factory Orders, will offer a glimpse into the labour market and manufacturing health.
- Not to be overlooked, a series of speeches from Federal Reserve members, including Bowman, Williams, Mester, and Daly, could stir the market as investors seek clues on the Fed’s policy path.
The collective insights from these events will likely dictate short-term market sentiments, offering potential catalysts for either a bearish extension or a reversal into bullish territory for the EUR/USD pair.
In conclusion, the EUR/USD pair’s trajectory is predominantly bearish below the $1.0763 pivot. Should the market breach this pivot upward, it could catalyze a bullish resurgence.
However, the convergence of technical indicators and pending economic events suggests that traders should brace for a potentially turbulent trading environment.
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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
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Arslan Butt
Index & Commodity Analyst
Arslan Butt serves as the Lead Commodities and Indices Analyst, bringing a wealth of expertise to the field. With an MBA in Behavioral Finance and active progress towards a Ph.D., Arslan possesses a deep understanding of market dynamics.
His professional journey includes a significant role as a senior analyst at a leading brokerage firm, complementing his extensive experience as a market analyst and day trader. Adept in educating others, Arslan has a commendable track record as an instructor and public speaker.
His incisive analyses, particularly within the realms of cryptocurrency and forex markets, are showcased across esteemed financial publications such as ForexCrunch, InsideBitcoins, and EconomyWatch, solidifying his reputation in the financial community.
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