The day started with the USD being on a slight retreat after the advance on Wednesday following the strong retail sales report and the sentiment starting to improve somewhat. The first data for the day came from Australia, with the Unemployment Change falling by -65.1K in December, missing expectations for an increase of 15.4K. That sent the AUD diving 20 pips lower, but it reversed back up pretty fast and AUD/USD the day 40 pips higher nonetheless, with the Unemployment Rate remaining unchanged at 3.9%.

The European session was stable, with most assets trading in a tight range awaiting the US Unemployment Claims report, which shows that the employment sector remains in decent shape. Jobless claims fell below 200K, which is considered a strong reading. Initial jobless claims for the week fell to 187K, below the predicted 207K and the lowest number since September 2022.

The four-week moving average likewise decreased to 203K, from the previous week’s corrected total of 208K. That sent the USD 30-40 pips higher across the board, but buyers couldn’t sustain the gains and the retreat resumed again in late US session.

Today’s Market Expectations

The day starts with the Core CPI YoY for Japan which is predicted to slow down by 2 points to 2.3% from 2.5% previously. Inflation in Japan has been rapidly declining due to prices falling, while the growth in wages is also slowing, which is negative for the JPY. This means that USD/JPY will eventually get to 150 again.

The UK retail sales report will come next, with the headline number predicted to come at -0.5%, resuming the previous downward trend following a 1.3% increase in November, most likely due to Black Friday. This data comes after the CPI rose to 4.0% in December from 3.9% before, but the core CPI remained stable at 5.1%, surprising market expectations of a 2-point decrease to 4.9%. However, the average cash earnings exhibited a dip earlier this week.

Later in the US session, we have the retail sales report from Canada, with the headline number expected to fall flat at 0.0% in November from 0.7% in October, despite Black Friday, while the core number is expected to show a slight increase of 0.1%. This report won’t likely have any impact on the Bank of Canada meeting next week, which has already been decided on, but it’s another piece of data to keep an eye on.

Forex Signals Update

BTC/USD – Daily Chart 

Ethereum Bouncing Off the 50 SMA

Ethereum remains bullish overall, however, we saw a retreat yesterday, as Bitcoin also fell back below $43,000. But the price remains above moving averages which are acting as support, pushing lows upward. But last week we saw an even bigger retest which sent the price below $2,500, however, buyers returned this week, so they’re likely to reaper soon, therefore we are holding our ETH signal open.

Ethereum – Daily Chart

• ETH Buy Signal
• Entry Price: $1,947.38
• Stop Loss: $1,490
• Take Profit: $2,500