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EUR/USD Price Forecast and Week Ahead: Surges to 1.0847 Post US Jobs Data
Arslan Butt•Sunday, April 7, 2024•2 min read
The Euro experienced a minor decline, dropping by 0.13% against the US dollar following a robust US job report, which enhanced the dollar’s value. Currently, the EUR/USD pair is trading at 1.0822, having peaked at 1.0847 earlier.
The US Bureau of Labor Statistics announced a significant increase in job additions for March, with Nonfarm Payrolls jumping to 303K, surpassing both the anticipated 200K and the previous 270K. The report also highlighted a decrease in the Unemployment Rate to 3.8% from 3.9%, with Average Hourly Earnings meeting expectations.
After the employment data, the US Dollar Index (DXY) saw a rise of 0.155%, reaching 104.36, while US Treasury bond yields edged up, with the 10-year note hitting 4.365%.
Comments from Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin noted the strength of the report, albeit acknowledging uneven progress in inflation reduction. Meanwhile, in Europe, German Factory Orders showed a slight improvement in February, contrasting with the Eurozone’s retail sales, which fell more than expected.
This economic backdrop led to the EUR/USD falling below its 200-day moving average. Looking ahead, market attention will turn to upcoming US inflation figures and consumer sentiment reports, alongside the European Central Bank’s (ECB) forthcoming monetary policy meeting.
Upcoming Major Economic Events:
Wednesday, April 10:
- US Core CPI, CPI, and CPI year-on-year
- US 10-year Bond Auction
- FOMC Meeting Minutes
Thursday, April 11:
- ECB Main Refinancing Rate and Monetary Policy Statement
- US Core PPI, PPI, and Unemployment Claims
- ECB Press Conference
- US 30-year Bond Auction
Friday, April 12:
- US Preliminary University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment and Inflation Expectations
These events could significantly influence the financial markets, especially concerning the Euro and the US dollar’s exchange rates, as investors and traders assess the potential impacts on the global economic landscape.
EUR/USD Price Forecast: Weekly Outlook
The EUR/USD’s pivot point is set at 1.0831, with immediate resistance levels at 1.0879, 1.0917, and 1.0963. Support is found at 1.0793, 1.0765, and 1.0726.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 55, and the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is at 1.0816, both indicating a potential for buying interest. However, a resistance level at 1.0878 could cap gains.
A break above this level may amplify buying momentum, suggesting a bullish outlook for EUR/USD, while a drop below could lead to a sell-off.
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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
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Arslan Butt
Index & Commodity Analyst
Arslan Butt serves as the Lead Commodities and Indices Analyst, bringing a wealth of expertise to the field. With an MBA in Behavioral Finance and active progress towards a Ph.D., Arslan possesses a deep understanding of market dynamics.
His professional journey includes a significant role as a senior analyst at a leading brokerage firm, complementing his extensive experience as a market analyst and day trader. Adept in educating others, Arslan has a commendable track record as an instructor and public speaker.
His incisive analyses, particularly within the realms of cryptocurrency and forex markets, are showcased across esteemed financial publications such as ForexCrunch, InsideBitcoins, and EconomyWatch, solidifying his reputation in the financial community.
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