The US consumer has been one of the sectors that have been keeping the US economy afloat during the last several years. However, it was on a softening trend from summer 2023 until November, as surging interest rates were taking their toll on the demand.

US February CB Consumer Confidence Chart

However, in December and January we saw a strong improvement, but last month the confidence took a dive and the revisions for January were negative as well, so it’s not so clear yet how the consumer is feeling. After all, the FED hasn’t started the rate cut cycle yet, so debit and credit card rates remain extraordinarily high.

The US Consumer Confidence index was expected to hold steady at 106.7 points in March. In the previous report, the index halted a three-month streak of increases, surprising analysts with a notable decline across various metrics. The analysis highlighted that while consumers remain worried about overall inflation, their concerns about food and fuel prices have slightly eased in recent months.

But, there is increased apprehension regarding the job market and the political climate in the United States. So, traders are monitoring the Present Situation Index, as it typically foreshadows changes in the unemployment rate. But today the March Conference Board Consumer Confidence index came in at 104.7 points, falling short of the expected 107.0 points. The previous reading was revised slightly lower to 104.8 points from 106.7 points as well, which shows that the improvement in the previous two months has gone.

US March Conference Board Consumer Confidence

• March Conference Board consumer confidence 104.7 points vs 107.0 points expected
• Prior was 106.7 points (revised to 104.8 points)

• Present situation index vs 151.1 points prior
• Expectations index vs 69.7 points prior
• 1 year inflation % vs 6.3% prior
• Jobs hard-to-get vs 10.5 prior
• % of consumers expect their incomes to increase, from 13.7% last month
• 12-month inflation 5.3% vs 5.2%

Nonetheless, the US dollar is making some gains in the US session after stronger-than-expected durable goods orders from the US for February, which was released earlier.